With a severe shortage of obstetrician/gynecologists forecasted, some metropolitan areas are more prone to crisis-level conditions than others, according to new research.
The stakes for women's health are high, according to Amit Phull, MD, vice president of strategy and insights at San Francisco-based Doximity, which conducted the research.
"We're facing a national physician shortage in the years to come," he said in a statement. "Ob/gyns are one of the top specialties at risk and are central to women's healthcare in the U.S. The emergence of a significant shortage in this specialty could be terribly problematic from a women's health standpoint."
The American Congress of Obstetricians and Gynecologists (ACOG) estimates a shortage of up to 8,800 ob/gyns by 2020, with the shortfall approaching 22,000 by 2050.
One of the key features of the study is a risk index designed to identify which cities could feel the brunt of the shortage first. The risk index has two factors: the average age of the local ob/gyn workforce, and the workload they carry based on births per ob/gyn per year.
"In the metropolitan areas with older ob/gyns and higher workloads, we expect that they have a greater risk of shortages," the researchers wrote. "In the metropolitan areas with younger ob/gyns and lower workloads, we expect that they have a lower risk of shortages."
The top 5 cities considered to be at high risk for an ob/gyn shortage are Las Vegas; Los Angeles; Miami; Orlando; and Riverside, Calif.
The top 5 cities considered to be at low risk for a shortage are Ann Arbor, Mich.; Birmingham, Ala.; Portland, Ore.; San Jose, Calif.; and Baltimore.